09 May 2007
The second round of the NBA playoffs is barely underway, and one series in the Eastern conference already looks done and dusted (Pistons / Bulls) yet the futures betting market still maintains that the Suns / Spurs clash is the de facto title match. Either the market is correct or there is big betting value out East.
The NBA futures betting board at Bodog has the Spurs favored at 7/4. Fair enough, but next in the betting is the Suns, their current quarter-final opponents, at 3/1!
That`s dissin` the Pistons somewhat since only one of those teams can possibly advance, whereas the Pistons look set to go through to the next round, and should really advance from there to the Finals.
Once again there is a huge opportunity to arbitrage if you hold betting accounts at Bodog and say at Betfair, or some other sports betting exchange. If the Pistons make it to the NBA Finals they will be 14/10 to win, I reckon, and you could easily lay 18/10.
Let`s say you put $10,000 on the Pistons right now at 3/1. If they get to the Finals you could net $7,000 in profit by laying off at 18/10 regardless of whether they meet the Spurs, the Suns, or anyone else from the West + regardless of whether they win the championship or not. All they have to do is get there, which seems simple enough.
On the other hand, betting on the Spurs or Suns at this juncture is bad value. First of all one of them is going home after an incredibly tough series, and then they still have to beat the winner of the Jazz/Warriors series, which trust me will not be the cakewalk that the odds might suggest.
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