06 August 2007
August 6 - I`ve done very well handicapping the NFL over the past couple of seasons and I don`t shy away from the preseason, which is often easier to predict than the regular season.
The games don`t mean as much to some of the teams, therefore, some sports gamblers wrongly conclude that the games are less predictable. This makes no logical sense, and in fact certain angles seem more plausible now than they do a few weeks from now.
Take new head coaches for instance. They tend to fare very well ATS in the preseason. Art Shell and the Raiders last year were excellent in the preseason and then horrible in the regular season. This year we can expect some of the new head coaches to really struggle when the chips are down. But in the preseason, especially at home, these new head coaches could make you easy money.
Why? Well, for one thing they tend to care more. They want to establish respect both amongst their players and their fans. Do you really think the head coach of the Patriots or the Colts cares what happens in the preseason? They`re treated like minor deities by fans and players alike.
It cuts both ways for the players looking to impress coaching staffs. The established coaches know their teams well, and will make changes depending on depth. Players will often go out harder for new coaches because more jobs are on the line, including starting jobs.
The Steelers already proved this yesterday when they demolished the Saints for their new coach. New Orleans has bigger things to worry about than a preseason game, namely a potential Super Bowl berth.
If you want to make money on the NFL look at teams like Dallas and San Diego in the preseason, and then fade them in the regular season once the chips are down for Wade and Norv.
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