16 August 2007
August 17 - NFL betting unifies America like nothing else. Red states, Blue states, and even that purple state in the middle (why has no one used this clever Vikings quip yet? Am I the first?) like to bet on football. But to win you need NFL handicapping skills. You could go to a site like Mycapper.com and pay for it, or you could try to master some of those skills through my blog. Or you could do both, or finally, you could do neither - but if you select the last option you will fail and lose your entire bankroll.
Now that I`ve got you reading through the tyranny of superstition I`m going to explain the Bounce Theory of NFL handicapping.
A lot of handicappers use this weapon, but most of them apply it poorly, which is a shame because it does work. Basically you want to look for a team that was favored by -6 points or more who then went and finished that game 14 points or more BELOW expectations. So let`s say the Patriots were favored by 7 points at home to the Jets, but somehow the Jets ended up winning the game straight up 24-17.
The Patriots finished the game 14 or more points below expectations. The bounce theory posits (cool word, no?) that you should bet big on the Patriots next time out, because they are going to "bounce back" and cover.
But here`s where the skill comes in. You actually have to watch that first game and work out whether they played poorly or were the victims of terrible luck. Let`s say that in that game they were dominating throughout and led 17-10 with 3 minutes to go and had the ball. There was a lucky INT and the Jets ran it all the way back for the tying TD. On the kick off the Pats fumbled on their own 10 yard line and the Jets ran that in for a score to win the game 24-17.
In this instance the Bounce Theory DOES NOT WORK AS WELL because the team might not feel that they underperformed. The Pats, in my fictitious example - stop trying to look up the game for it does not exist, my equally fictitious doltish reader - played well enough to win and have nothing (in their minds) to bounce back from. They got unlucky and they`ll get them next time. The coaches will shout at the special teams dude who dropped the kickoff, but no one gives a crap about him anyway.
We want a good team that was HUMILIATED last time out. If the 14 point turaround happens at home that`s even better. We want them to come from a game where they were schooled, where they were so schooled that even their mamas came out with PhDs - not sure if this makes any sense but it sounds good - and where they will play better out of a sense of pride, and because they were screamed at by their coaches. We want to bet on Brady AFTER he lays an egg and tosses three picks. That`s the kind of poor effort we need to look for.
The strength of this system is mostly psychological - good teams (those favored by -6 or more to start with are usually good teams) get very angry and motivated if THEY BELIEVE they played poorly and lost a game they expected to win. If the team believes that they lost a game because of bad luck, and a crazy sequence of events then they might not be as motivated as you think - hence no bounce.
So the bounce system works as long as the final result was a fair refelection of the game. Look at the stats: first downs / takeaways (how those were obtained) / TDs (and how they were scored - were they the result of long cohesive drives, or freakish 90yd punt returns), they should help you decide.
Remember that the system only works when you have big favorites that underperform by 14 points or more (based on their expected performance profile, which is the closing spread itself).
How well does this system fare, I hear you cynics enquire? How does 60.8% over the past five seasons sound...pretty damn good if you know anything about NFL betting. You can have it for nothing, because it requires a lot of patience - there are weeks at a time when you cannot place a wager. But the good news is that when an opportunity arises you are primed to make big money!
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