25 January 2010
January 25 - The Super Bowl spread is already in flux! Seconds after sports books posted their opening NFL line for what should be an instant classic between two legitimate #1 conference seeds, the wiseguys pounced on the Colts. The opening points spread of Indy -3.5 points disappeared in a blaze of betting action on the chalk prompting most bookies to go -4, then -4.5, then -5 and now even -5.5 points!
That is a huge move for ante-post betting on America`s most popular betting activity and represents a lot of shrewd money for the favorites. The reasons were plain to see: The Colts scored 30 points with ease against the best defense in the league (Jets) while the Saints gave up a gazillion yards at home (well over 450 anyway) and needed 5 turnovers and a coin toss to beat the Vikings in a squeaker.
So now if you want to bet on the Super Bowl you can take +5 or +5.5 points on the Saints depending, which looks like excellent value to us. Bet on the game right now at
Bodog, or
Bookmaker.com because we are here to tell you that the line will settle down back around the 4 mark by next week.
It has to because this is just a knee-jerk reaction. The opposite thing is happening to the Over/Under total which will continue to go higher until the real bets are placed in the final days before the actual game. You can get good value on the Under if you wait and time it. But in terms of the ATS market now is the time to take points if you want to wager on the underdogs.
We think that most of the serious money will still be for the Colts though, and they should have to lay more than the key number of 3 points in this game. Anything over 4 though is huge betting value.
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