Caribbean Stud Poker Strategy

Caribbean Stud Poker is quite popular at land based casinos and online is no differtent. The reason for its popularity probably lies in its sinmplicity but the name probably play a bit of a role. There is a drawback (as there always is with a simple game) - the house edge is a rather unfavorable at 5.26%  so, for every $100 wagered, a player can expect to lose $5.26 over a period of time.  As with most online casino games, you want to play a strtategy that lowers the house edge as much as possible and sways the odds your way.

Caribbean Stud Poker strategy is based on two simple decisions: do you raise or fold.

Four outcomes are possible from a player's decision:

1. You fold and lose the ante
2. You raise but win only the ante as the dealer did not qualify
3. You raise and win the best as you beat the dealer
4. You raise and lose your ante and raise as the dealer's hand beats yours

There are times when the decision to raise is simple, e.g. you hold a flush. It will also be clear when to fold, e.g. no pair or no high card.  The difficult decisions come when you hold marginal hands.

PAIRS

Always play pairs regardless of the dealer's up card.  Pairs are dealt about 42% of the time, and there are 13 possible. Of the pairs, 7 have a positive expectation (iei in the long run they should win more often than lose), 3 pairs have a positive expectation when the dealer's up card is equal to or less than your pair. The other three pairs have a negative expectation - (deuces, 3's and 4's). So 10 of 13 pairs will show a profit long-term.

There is a problem with folding the low pairs though. If over a period of time you fold the low pairs, the house edge increases. The dealer is excepted to hold no pair about 50% of the time. Can a player just avoid playing the small pairs? Well...not if he wants the house edge average to shoot up to 7% if he folds these pairs and surrenders his ante bets!  The dealer will have a non-paired hand over 50% of the time and A-K about 6% of the time, which makes the lo pairs worth playing

NO PAIR

Fold non-paired hands except A-K, and raise this hand.

The dealer's up card must match one of the player's cards to reduce the chance of the dealer getting a pair.

The following chart illustrates when the player should raise the bet:

Finally, the $1 side progressive jackpot bet at some games is a total sucker bet - avoid it.

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