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May 30 - The 2007 Epsom Derby is being treated as a one horse race according to the latest betting moves. Bookies around the UK report that three out of four bets on the Vodafone Derby are for the favourite, Authorized, who looks set to start the Classic at odds on.
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Authorized is clearly the class horse in the race with two Group 1 wins already on his resume, and he has Frankie Dettori in the irons. This alone explains why punters are so keen to lump on even at odds that should make one wary if not squeamish.
The fact of the matter is that The Derby is never a foregone conclusion as the last horse to start at odds-on, the supposedly unbeatable Entrepreneur proved in 1997. He finished that race 4th even though he started as the 4/6 favourite.
How tough is it to win the Epsom Derby? It's so tough that Dettori, arguably the most recognised jockey on the planet and a man who has had his pick of champion rides over the years, has never won the race. He's 0 for 14 in The Derby.
Authorized has been cut from odds of 10/11 in to 4/5 and has to be overvalued at that price. He has to deal with a very tricky Epsom Downs course and there are some concerns about his stamina.
Other horses in with a shout judging on betting moves include Strategic Prince (although his trainer has warned that if there is more rain before the race he will not run the horse), Aqaleem, and Regime.
If you're looking for some good each-way betting value we recommend a flutter on Regime, available at 16-1 with some online bookmakers (totesport for one).
Latest Epsom Derby betting at Ladbrokes:
4-5 Authorized, 8-1 Archipenko, 9-1 Aqaleem, 12-1 Eagle Mountain, Soldier Of Fortune, 14-1 Regime, Salford Mill, 16-1 Admiralofthefleet, Strategic Prince, 20-1 Lucarno, 25-1 and better the rest.
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