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May 2 - The latest Kentucky Derby betting from Bodog is substantial with plenty of prop bets and interesting wagers, but the race itself comes down to one pretty simple question: How good is Big Brown?
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If Big Brown is truly the next Triple Crown horse he will break history in more than just Affirmed's category (the last horse to win all three Triple Crown races 30 years ago). In fact, that category will be a statistical cakewalk to navigate compared to the other obstacles that stand in his way.
The first is that no horse has won the Kentucky Derby off only three lifetime starts since Regret did it long before the TV was invented never mind the Internet. It is a safe bet that no one reading this can remember watching Regret race in person since it happened roughly a gajillion years ago.
The second hurdle is even harder to overcome, namely the draw. Big Brown drew post 20, which is still technically in the state of Kentucky but very hard to see from the rail. Big Brown has early pace and he'll have to use up a lot of it to get way over to the other side where all the other horses will be running. The other two options are to drop out, which means his race is over, or to race very wide, which means his race is over. To get across 19 horses at Churchill Downs is not easy and will require that a lot of energy is expended by the horse early.
One horse did win the Kentucky Derby from the 20 hole. His name was Clyde Van Dusen and he did it in 1929 before they had starting stalls. The horses lined up behind tape so it wasn't as hard to barge across (presumably, again I wasn't there in person to witness the Clyde Van Dusen Derby win).
All of this leads me to believe that unless Big Brown is Barbaro reincarnated on powerful juice (which is always a possibility with Tricky Dicky Dutrow, who used to figure that if an illegal substance was good enough for him it was good enough for his horses) he won't win this race, but he will be the betting favorite.
If Big Brown does win, the sport of horse racing will finally have a champion to draw the common man back to the Triple Crown, and it will be justified because if the set up for this race doesn't stop this horse then absolutely nothing will.
Bet the Kentucky Derby at Bodog's Racebook right now!
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