November 19 - It's NFL Week 11 of the regular season and excitement is in the air ahead of tonight's big game between the Miami Dolphins and the Carolina Panthers in Charlotte, where the Dolphins will face the sharp claws of the home team without their prized running back Ronnie Brown.
When the spread opened for this game the Panthers were favored by 3, but the confirmation that Brown will be sitting this one out pushed that up to 3.5 at select betting spots. The total, meanwhile started out at a solid 45, but a subsequent betting rush by NFL fans reduced that down to 42.5.
On paper both teams are pretty evenly matched (both currently sitting on 4-5, 4-5 ATS). But if the Panthers have a slight advantage by playing at home, Brown's absence may increase it even further. Brown is Miami's top offensive player, but the foot injury he sustained last week has not healed.
He'll be replaced in tonight's game by Ricky Williams who will have some big shoes to fill. That said, there are many NFL betting fans who feel that over the last couple of seasons Williams has quietly evolved into a powerful and consistent running back, and one that is capable of making big plays.
And Miami Dolphins head coach Tony Sparano agrees. 'Williams has worked like crazy for the year and a half that we've been here. Watching him work, you wouldn't think that he's over 30. We're talking about a guy that led the league in rushing at one point. He gets it; he knows what he has to do.'
Assuming Williams knows what he has to do tonight, he could help his team extend their 4-1 ATS record in this series, which dates back to 1998. Of course, it is also worth remembering that in their last 7 games as a road underdog, the Dolphins have gone 6-1, so betting fans have their work cut out.
As for the Panthers, ever since wide receiver Steve Smith was 'un-sidelined', he's proven to be a big asset to the team. Just last week he caught a couple of great touchdowns before leaving the field with injured ribs. Over its last six games Carolina has gone 4-2, but only 3-3 against the number.
Interestingly, in their last four November games Carolina earned an 4-0 ATS record. In addition, from their last eight home games played in November their under is 6-2. So as the two teams face off tonight with everything to play for, it should be a hard, exciting and tight nail-biter of a game.
View the latest NFL Live Lines for all of the Week 11 games courtesy of Bodog, and be sure to enter our NFL iPhone contest by betting on football with Intertops.
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