When it comes to NFL betting there is nothing more important than key numbers. What does the term NFL key number even mean though? Basically the majority of NFL games end with similar margins of victory. The two most common margins are 3 points and then 7 points, and they are the primary key numbers when you delve into NFL handicapping.
When an NFL spread moves from 3 points to 3.5 points or to 2.5 points many sports bettors figure it is no big deal, but it is a huge deal. However, if a line moves from 5 points to 5.5 points that really isn't a big deal. Why? Because 5 is not a key number in NFL spreads. Most games do not finish at 5 point margins of victory so a move to 4.5 or 5.5 is not that important.
Let's look at how important key numbers really are:
3 points (the big one) - close to 17% of all NFL games fall on this number. If you have a team at -3 and they win by 3 it is a push so no big deal, but taking 3.5 is something you need to think about carefully. Conversely, getting +3.5 points on an underdog might be excellent value.
7 points - 10% of all games fall on this number.
10 points - A little over 6% of all games fall on this number.
Over the past five seasons of NFL action 33% of all games fell on either 3, 7 or 10 points. These are the three most significant key numbers.
6 points - Not surprisingly, almost 6% of NFL games ended on this number.
14 - 5% of all games fell on this number, but this is not as important a key number because spreads rarely get to a 2 TD level.
4 points - A little over 4% ended on a spread of 4 points.
All other victory margins not mentioned above occurred less than 4% of the time during the past five seasons.
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