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Author: Marc Weinberg
August 12 - I have just returned from the 2006 World Series Of Poker, where I played in two No-Limit Hold'em events including the Main Event. One of the biggest strategic weaknesses that I saw over there was the inability to play an overpair after the flop.
It occurred to me that this is a fundamental problem for tournament poker players, but it is complicated to address. The basic problem is the ability to know when you are in front, and to register when you have fallen behind in a hand.
An example should clarify the matter. You hold pocket Queens and put in a threatening raise pre-flop. For the sake of simplicity let's say that you're a solid player who hasn't been ovely aggressive. There is little reason for anyone to think you're "making a move" here. You do, however, get two callers.
The first point is that you have declared your hand, within a range of holdings to be sure, but basically you are telling the table that you do have a hand. The two callers may have anything at this point. Let's assume that one player is very weak and the other is very tricky.
The flop comes 4-8-J and it is checked to you. You naturally make another decent sized bet, perhaps as much as the pot. At this point you are check-raised all-in.
If it is the weak player, the online poker playing novice with no "serious" tournament experience you face a problem: Did he flop a monster after calling with a speculative hand like 4-4 or J-8? Or is he a fool who thinks A-J in this poisition is the best hand?
I have seen a lot of players assume the latter and gladly make the call. If they held AA instead of QQ the number of players who think they need to make that all-in call shoots even higher. And it boggles the mind...
I know it's tough to lay down AA but in a $10,000 buy-in poker tournament against a tricky pro how can you think you're ahead? This brings me to the tricky player, who flat-called your suggestive raise pre-flop and then check-raised you all-in after the flop. This guy knows that you have a hand like QQ-AA and he also knows he's way in front.
He probably has 88 or JJ or 44 and has you pegged as the type of solid rock-like individual who cannot get away from his overpair.
The decision you need to make in tournament poker is initially a measure of your opponent's skill. If it is early in the event and you cannot make that judgment my advice is to let the hand go. He may think top pair is good, and he may be bluffing, but I feel that in a major event there is at least a 50% chance that he is neither a fool nor a chancer, and will have your overpair beaten.
Even if he is a fool he may have stumbled on to a set or two-pair. We haven't even dealt with those flops where draws come into play:
Imagine you hold KK and raise pre-flop. You get one caller. the flop comes 8s-9s-2d and you are once again check-raised all-in after the flop. Your opponent holds Ts-Js as it turns out. You call and when he "sucks out" on you (really draws out on you), you feel that you were beaten by a maniac. But were you?
Assuming neither of your Kings were spades the guy played his suited connectors perfectly. He had 15 outs to crush you on the flop and was in fact an solid favorite to beat you (56.3% to your 43.7%) - but most Rocks never realize this and that's why Rocks don't win big tournaments.
It takes a bold player to lay down Kings because you have to be creative in your poker to even comprehend the possibility that you are behind in this scenario. Weak players can only think of hands that they would play, and mistakenly feel that their overpair is good.
Even if the overpair is good there is still the possibility that your hand will be beaten. In our best case scenario we figured that our high pocket pair was up against top pair on the flop with a good kicker. Let's say our QQ is up against AJ with a J-x-x flop. We laugh at the chucklehead who put all his chips on the line, but he's also put all your chips on the line, and he has outs to beat you.
I'm not suggesting that we should copy that style of play, but we must recognize that this style can beat you if you are wedded to the strength of your hand. If someone puts you all-in and you only have an overpair to the board on the flop, you need to think very carefully about the stage of the tournament, and whether the risk justifies the reward.
Related Gambling Articles:
- Poker Tournament Strategy - Bubble Bursting
- Understanding Your Stack In Tournament Poker
- When To Raise In Poker
- NL Hold'em Tournaments - Basic Short Stack Strategy
- Advantages of Texas Hold'em Poker
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